In 2000, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a new set of baseline greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). The SRES team defined four narrative storylines (A1, A2, B1 and B2) describing the relationships between the forces driving GHG and aerosol emissions and their evolution during the 21st century globally as well as for large world regions. The SRES reports emissions by type of GHG and by fuel type to 2100 for four world regions (OECD countries as of 1990, countries undergoing economic reform, developing countries in Asia, rest of world) for each of these storylines. Specific assumptions about the quantification of scenario drivers, such as population and economic growth, technological change, resource availability, land-use changes, and local and regional environmental policies, are also provided.

End-use sector-level results for buildings, industry, or transportation or information regarding adoption of particular technologies and policies are not provided in the SRES. The goal of this report is to provide more detailed information on the SRES scenarios at the end use level including historical time series data and a decomposition of energy consumption to understand the forecast implications in terms of end use efficiency. This report focuses on the A1 and B2 scenarios since they represent distinctly contrasting futures.

The A1 storyline describes a future of very rapid economic growth, low population growth, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The B2 storyline describes a world with an emphasis economic, social, and environmental sustainability, especially at the local and regional levels. It is a world with moderate population growth, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change (Nakicenovic et al., 2000).

Data were obtained from the SRES modeling teams that provide more detail than that reported in the SRES. For the A1 marker scenario, the modeling team provided final energy demand and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions by fuel for industry, buildings, and transportation for nine world regions. Final energy use and CO₂ emissions for three sectors (industry, transport, buildings) for the four SRES world regions were provided for the B2 marker scenario.

This report describes the results of a disaggregation of the SRES projected energy use and energy-related CO₂ emissions for the industrial, transport, and buildings sectors for 10 world regions (see Appendix 1). An example of further disaggregation of the two SRES scenarios for the residential buildings sector in China is provided, illustrating how such aggregate scenarios can be interpreted at the end use level.

See also: Global Energy Demand Collaborative